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Potential For Big San Francisco Quake in the Next 30 Years
Is it time to be thinking abou moving from the west coast? The Hayward Fault, which runs under Oakridge and San Francisco has a 45-75% chance of letting loose in the next 30 years. This fault, which has recently been discovered to be longer than previously thought has a history of quaking about every 170 years. This October will see the 140th anniversary of the last big quake on this line which occured in 1868.
Though the 1868 quake was eclipsed by the 1906 San Francisco quake (which was related to the San Andreas fault), it still caused plenty of damage and with 100 times more people living in that region now than there were 140 years ago, the results of such a quake would no doubt be catastrophic. Scientists believe the quake would probably be a magnitude of 7. Due to building code changes, there is a high probability of survival of the quake, but experts predict life would not be easy and people should be prepared.
The ground under us is one of the most unpredictable of natural disasters. Even if a quake can be predicted, it is going to be a hard thing to get people out of harm's way and I believe that due to the population growth in earthquake prone areas, the ensuing disaster would make the fallout after Hurricane Katrina look like a walk in the park.
And for my East coast readers who are breathing a sigh of relieve about being far away from earthquake territory...I hate to burst your bubble, but you need to think again! You should check out the information about the New Madrid Faultline.
The New Madrid fault system extends 150 miles southward from Cairo, Illinois through New Madrid and Caruthersville, Missouri, down through Blytheville, Arkansas to Marked Tree, Arkansas. It dips into Kentucky near Fulton and into Tennessee near Reelfoot Lake, and extends southeast to Dyersburg, Tennessee. It crosses five state lines, and crosses the Mississippi River in at least three places. The last time there was a major quake on this fault line was in 1811-1812. This quake had an epicenter in NE Arkansas, SE Missouri. As a result of this quake, bells rang in Massachusetts. The ground is harder on the east coast and the waves travel further. On the west coast, the ground is sandier and the waves don't travel as far. A major quake on the New Madrid Line would rock the entire eastern seaboard from Mississippi eastward. And not only do the waves travel further, but the shake longer before dissipating. So instead of a 30 second ground shake, you could have a 10 minute ground shake... Some reports believe that 60% of Memphis would be destroyed in the event of a 6.0 earthquake.
How's that for cheery thinking! Sorry, I just find the whole thing fascinating as well as absolutely terrifying.
